Computing in 15 years (2020)
According to the present trends and directions in which free software and open source community and IT world as a whole is moving, how would you imagine your world of computing in 15 years. (year 2020)
It is no doubt that whatever the global changes, we computer users being so globally interconnected WILL be very much affected. Therefore, it may be valid to presume that some significant changes in a way you compute today may change in the future.
I for one tend to believe some predictions i have found on the web that all basically say the same thing, that the world would be massively interconnected and internet would be everywhere and in everything, not just PC's and cell phones, but in virtually every device that can in any way benefit from being networked with the ultimate network.
I'll also be optimistic about free information and say that the fight against software patents would be succesful (at least to an extent if you will) and we have preserved our freedoms to information. And i'll now continue with an optimistic "predictions" and a vision for this future..
Nutch may revolutionarize Yahoo making it the top search engine in the world. I could find any information i need from any device with a viewscreen and a keyboard or a speech recognition system that is connected to the internet by using most sofisticated never seen free software powered (nutch) yahoo search engine that will already be personalized according to my character and interests and will be able to search according to a wide range of different criteria.
I also expect my computer to talk fluent english as well as understand my commands without problems so that i can surf the net, write articles, administer libervis.com just by speaking, without even touching the mouse and keyboard.
All of this would of course be powered by free as in freedom software as it will inevitably beat any competition as the fastest growing and improving technological development concept.
Linux will revolutionarize the desktop. You'll be able to install it in a minute from a CD/DVD or directly from internet and then install new applications without even clicking a mouse. Just say search for this or that program for linux and the system will find what you need for your particular distro and environment. All that would be left needed is to say "install" and the software will be ready in a second. The same goes for uninstallation.
Proprietary software will exist, but the media will already start uncovering the inevitable truth, proprietary software has set on a path of severe shrinking or even death.
Microsoft's browser market share will indeed be just a share of only up to a half of market with other half or more being dominated by free browsers. The similar picture will be with operating systems where windows would simply be too incompetent to keep up to the advancements of free software and it's development. MS will already be seriously into gradually embracing free software development and business model.
Okay.. so this is as i said an optimistic vision. I'll be happy to hear your short ot long descriptions of how do you imagine the world of computing in 2020.
Thank you
Daniel
In 2020 computers will be very powerful and internet connections very fast so we will download, install and run huge apps in a matter of minutes. We will listen to ultra-HiFi music, watch hi-res videos, play really cool games and send video e-mails.
But I think that programming and administration will still be mostly bounded to good old text files and command line because these are (and will be) most convenient ways to perform such tasks. Visual programming tools exist for many years now but programs made by them are slower and resource hungry and I think that this won't change much.
Free software will completely overtake servers, but I am not sure about the desktop. The fact is that today MS holds about 96% of desktops while linux has only about 1%. MS is just too big to lose much of this 96% in just 15 years. It will take at least a couple of decades for that. If I had to guess I would say that the desktop situation would be something like MS 85%, linux 10%.
Refrigerators, washing machines, home security systems, vehicles and watches will probably run linux, because it is scalable and suitable for any task :-) .
Companies will use ALL the information they can get to bombard us with commercials and "unbeatable" offers, so don't get confused if on a lovely spring morning in 2020 on some display you see Bill calling "Daniiijeeel" and offering you MS Windows Ultra Server 2019 tripleXP Turbo Forum edition while you are waiting for your hi-speed tram :yes: . If you order now you get MS t-shirt for free!
This is my realistic version of our future, if I hadn't slept well this night you would get pesimistic "there will be a nuclear war and everything will go to hell" version of the future.
Anyway, I hope that we will still post here in 2020 :-) .
I think in 15 years, noone will understand what all the exitement about computers used to be about.
The first telephones were big hi tech things that only few people could afford. Now almost everyone has a tiny cell phone in their pocket and we can't imagine life without them anymore. Something similiar will happen with computers: they will be small things that are hidden everywhere. Nothing special to anyone.
I think then all the exitement will be about a new type of superfast cheap transport. No doubt we'll be discussing a company that wants to monopolize it, and the freedoms this product can bring if everyone gets access to it.
I-am-PK wrote:
I think in 15 years, noone will understand what all the exitement about computers used to be about. ..... Nothing special to anyone.
I agree with you on this, it is in human nature to get used to everything. I think that from this "bug in human psychology" most of the bad things in society (and some good things) emerge. The bad ones are greed of gain (you get used to what you have and you want more) and then materialism that comes as a consequence of greed. The good one is that getting used to things results in fast progress (you get used to what exists and you want something new).
Sorry if am a bit off topic.
stojic wrote:
In 2020 computers will be very powerful and internet connections very fast so we will download, install and run huge apps in a matter of minutes. We will listen to ultra-HiFi music, watch hi-res videos, play really cool games and send video e-mails.
Exactly. :-)
stojic wrote:
But I think that programming and administration will still be mostly bounded to good old text files and command line because these are (and will be) most convenient ways to perform such tasks. Visual programming tools exist for many years now but programs made by them are slower and resource hungry and I think that this won't change much.
I agree, textual programming is the most efficient way to create quality programs. However, i think that there would be some more sofisticated development systems that will enable the automation of some common algorithms and every other possible way of assisting a programmer inteligently. Also, i believe that the voice programming might enter the game as well.
stojic wrote:
Free software will completely overtake servers, but I am not sure about the desktop. The fact is that today MS holds about 96% of desktops while linux has only about 1%. MS is just too big to lose much of this 96% in just 15 years. It will take at least a couple of decades for that. If I had to guess I would say that the desktop situation would be something like MS 85%, linux 10%.
Well, i surely don't think MS will "fall" easily, but any predictions about percentages of market shares are very difficult to make. I am sure MS will be there holding a big part of it's market, but will it really still be in domination or not is not that sure if you ask me. I always say that the growth of free software is not steady, but accelerating and believing it makes me believe (and hope) that MS will loose more significant market shares than many of us may think now. However, future will show and nothing is certain except that free software WILL grow. The question is just how much and in how long time will it grow.
I am optimistic, but i will also do what is in my power to make free software movement, community and adoption grow as fast and as high as possible. This site is one of my contributions to it.
stojic wrote:
Companies will use ALL the information they can get to bombard us with commercials and "unbeatable" offers, so don't get confused if on a lovely spring morning in 2020 on some display you see Bill calling "Daniiijeeel" and offering you MS Windows Ultra Server 2019 tripleXP Turbo Forum edition while you are waiting for your hi-speed tram :yes: . If you order now you get MS t-shirt for free!
stojic wrote:
Anyway, I hope that we will still post here in 2020 :-) .
We will! I'll make sure of it, and this site would be one of the greatest community portals because, as the free software community grows in size it grows in it's importence for the whole IT world making portals and forums like this even more popular and attractive. It'll probably run on a 200 GB server with 1.2 Thz AMD processor and be powered by XOOPS 5.1 ....;-)
I-am-PK wrote:
I think in 15 years, noone will understand what all the exitement about computers used to be about. ..... Nothing special to anyone.
Indeed, however, there will always be guys like me who just enjoy in the simple fact on how far we have come comparing to... "the middle ages" ;-)
I just love mobile phones and i'll always love computers and their latest widgets however used to it i get as well as i am still pretty "amazed" on how i can talk with so many people from so many different parts of the world with practically no effort. It's also amazing to me how this site i manage every day is located on servers in Texas while the host is Croatian as well as myself.. All those things are very normal to me, but they still haven't lost it's "magic" in some way. :-)
Thanks
Daniel