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Microsoft admits Vista failure

"With two overlapping events, Microsoft admitted what we have been saying all along, Vista, aka Windows Me Two (Me II), is a joke that no one wants.

It did two unprecedented things this week that frankly stunned us."

"These two actions by Microsoft are proof of what I suggested three years ago. Microsoft has lost its ability to twist arms, and now it is going to die. It can't compete on level ground, so is left with backpedalling and discounts of almost 100 times.

What we are seeing is an unprecedented shift of power. It is also an unprecedented admission of failure. And the funniest part about the moves made? They are the wrong things to do. Microsoft is in deep trouble. µ" -- Read more

Do we need to say more? Smiling

Let's just hope Free Software community knows how to use this biggest opportunity ever to advance Free Software in the market.

Comments

not another ME

 

This isn't another ME that Microsoft can recover from with their next release. The OEMs are leaving.

Indeed. It might take some

Indeed. It might take some time before all major OEMs leave the bandwagon, but it seems likely to happen, although they'd still be offering XP (but it can't last forever).

MS say they will stop

 

MS say they will stop supplying XP next January. I wouldn't be surprised if they back down on that though, given large organisations won't all be ready for vista.

Even without the audit requirements of ISO9000/1 or Sarbanes-Oxley, a quality organisation will have standard operating procedures for system and application development and maintenance. Many of these have to be reworked or at least validated for vista and signed off. Bespoke application suppliers will no doubt be rushing to certify support, but there tend to be lots of internal apps too, then add training.

It's a colossal workload that will in many companies defer other work that would have been done, and the benefit for all this cost is little more than staying operational. OK and some staff wasting time playing with aero as if they were auditioning for "Minority Report II - Pre-Virus targets Vista".

If MS insist on ceasing XP supplies I'd predict a stockpiling of XP systems by companies who need to expand their operations in or after Q1/08 but for whom vista changeover work is not top priority. MS customers can be justifiably annoyed. If they get caught do this costly work, it's not because they see the opportunity to make operations more efficient or effective, it's not because they are bringing something new to market, they will do it because a supplier has them by the short and curlies and is strong-arming a scheduled workload upon them whether the timing suits the business or not.

You could argue GNU/Linux is worse with it's more frequent upgrades, but the freedom to choose what to do and when is yours. The wider lesson here is about having applications that are not just cross-platform, but OS independent, IE AMPware. A web browser and IP connection is all the end user needs. I think market pressures will drive this, Wall St responds when some have taken costs out of the business and others are labouring under a high cost inflexible model.

As for the $3 student edition for China, that depends on the PRC buying PC's for students, constraint 1, red-flag is a priority for the PRC who see the MS strategy for what it is, constraint 2. Plus in general I think the wow will get old pretty quick. Compiz/beryl eye-candy already makes aero look dated for those who think OS toying is important.

that "$3 student edition" is

 

that "$3 student edition" is just a mean to lock more people in as when you are no longer in primary or secondary schools you will need to purchase a full license to use it legally. And things can be very bad when schools force students use such things to do homework.

PS: Red Flag = the Chinese Linspire, which IMHO is not the best choice. (their distribution comes with many proprietary fonts/software and they also sells many proprietary programs like RedOffice, which is in turn based on OpenOffice.org)

Bruce Schneier links and

 

Bruce Schneier links and agrees to a story that links to the above.

When really smart people start saying microsoft may die, the company must be in serious trouble.

Indeed. Although after

Indeed. Although after reading some of the comments I was thinking of what do we actually mean by Microsoft dieing? I would guess it is just shrinking and becoming less and less important.

The word "die" can be a strong one and then it usually stirs reactions from people saying "it's not dieing any time soon" as if they're talking about the complete disappereance.

anonymous@schneier.com

 
anonymous@schneier.com wrote:

The IBM analogy is better than you think.

Look at how they changed: their old incarnation "died", and a new one prevailed.

If MS can do that, then the old MS will have died. Whether the current MS can survive this rebirth remains to be seen. But a lot of companies are perenially seen as being on the verge of death, and few of the predictions about death or rebirth are ever accurate. My approach is just "wait and see".

Nothing to add to that.

Indeed. That explains it

Indeed. That explains it quite well. So death should actually be called a forced rebirth. Maybe what is happening to MS these days will do that to them.

Another interesting article

Another interesting article on Vista failure: Vista – End of the Dream?

According to this, MS is facing what was coming all along. They were writing code that was unmaintanable and would hence sooner or later reach a point when it's practically impossible to do anything but start completely over, a whole new OS from scratch, which they didn't do so far.

Of course the fact that the code is kept secret doesn't help at all.

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